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2007/10 Are the claims made about global warming's dangers and its human causation accurate?<BR>
2007/10 Are the claims made about global warming's dangers and its human causation accurate?
What they said ...
'Climate change is the single biggest long-term problem we face - the evidence is overwhelming' British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair
'We make our own assessment of these things' Australian Prime Minister, Mr John Howard
The issue at a glance
On February 2, 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth and final report. The report states that global warming is occurring and that human activity is a significant causal factor. The report indicates, "Confidence in the assessment of the human contributions to recent climate change has increased considerably since the Third Assessment Report."
Among the report's findings are that eleven of the Earth's 12 warmest years since 1850 have occurred since 1995; that it is likely the Earth's temperature will rise 3C by 2100 and possibly by 6C with potentially catastrophic results; that carbon dioxide levels and global warming are far above the range naturally varying in the atmosphere over the past 650,000 years and that human activity is responsible for other observed changes to the Earth such as ocean warming and melting of the Arctic sea ice.
These findings represent the view of a significant proportion of the world's scientific community, however, there remain dissenters and the debate as to the cause and the extent of the risk, together with what are appropriate actions to take in response, continues in Australia.
Background Global warming
(The following account of global warming is a slightly edited version of the Wikipedia entry for this topic. The full entry can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming )
Global warming is an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans, especially that observed in recent decades. It is anticipated that this warming will continue and increase.
Global average air temperature near Earth's surface rose 0.74 ñ 0.18 øCelsius in the last century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded, "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in ... greenhouse gas concentrations," which leads to warming of the surface and lower atmosphere by increasing the greenhouse effect. Other phenomena such as solar variation and volcanoes have had smaller probably cooling effects on global mean temperature since 1950. While this conclusion has been endorsed by numerous scientific societies and academies of science, a few scientists disagree about the primary causes of the observed warming.
Models referenced by the IPCC predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 øC between 1990 and 2100. The range of values reflects the use of different scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions ... Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, warming and sea level rise are expected to continue for more than a millennium even if no further greenhouse gases are released after this date. This reflects the long average atmospheric lifetime of carbon dioxide (CO2).
An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including a rising sea level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation. There may also be increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, though it is difficult to connect specific events to global warming. Other consequences include changes in agricultural yields, glacier retreat, reduced summer stream flows, species extinctions and increases in the ranges of disease vectors.
Remaining scientific uncertainties include the exact degree of climate change expected in the future, and especially how changes will vary from region to region across the globe. A hotly contested political and public debate also has yet to be resolved, regarding whether anything should be done, and what could be cost-effectively done to reduce or reverse future warming, or to deal with the expected consequences. Most national governments have signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol aimed at combating greenhouse gas emissions.
Greenhouse gases and the "Greenhouse Effect"
(The following account of greenhouse gases and the "greenhouse effect" is a slightly edited version of the Wikipedia entry for this topic. The full entry can be found athttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gases)
Greenhouse gases are components of the atmosphere that contribute to the Greenhouse effect. Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere, while others result from human activities. Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Certain human activities add to the levels of most of these naturally occurring gases.
The greenhouse effect was discovered in 1824 by Joseph Fourier and first quantitatively investigated in 1896 by Svante Arrhenius.
When sunlight reaches the surface of earth, some of it is absorbed and warms the earth. Because the Earth's surface is much cooler than the sun, it radiates energy at much longer wavelengths than the sun. Some energy in these longer wavelengths is absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere before it can be lost to space. The absorption of this longwave radiant energy warms the atmosphere (the atmosphere also is warmed by transfer of ... heat from the surface). Greenhouse gases also emit longwave radiation both upward to space and downward to the surface. The downward part of this longwave radiation emitted by the atmosphere is the "greenhouse effect".
The major natural greenhouse gases are water vapour, which causes about 36-70% of the greenhouse effect on Earth (not including clouds); carbon dioxide, which causes 9-26%; methane, which causes 4-9%, and ozone, which causes 3-7%. It is not possible to state that a certain gas causes a certain percentage of the greenhouse effect, because the influences of the various gases are not additive. Other greenhouse gases include, but are not limited to, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, hydro fluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons and chlorofluorocarbons (see IPCC list of greenhouse gases).
Internet information
The online technical information site, howstuffworks, has a detailed treatment of global warming. It explains the greenhouse effect, what could be anticipated if the polar ice caps melt and discusses the arguments surrounding the extent of the problem.
This information can be found at http://science.howstuffworks.com/global-warming1.htm
'An Inconvenient Truth' is an Academy Award-winning documentary about climate change, specifically global warming, directed by Davis Guggenheim and presented by former United States Vice President Al Gore. It argues that the consequences of global warming are serious and that human activities are a major cause. A companion book authored by Gore has been on the paperback nonfictions New York Times bestseller list since June 11, 2006.
The film can be purchased as a DVD but is not available online. Further information about it can be found at its Internet site http://www.aninconvenienttruth.com.au/truth/
On March 9, 2007, the BBC's Channel 4 telecast an environmental documentary titled 'The Great Global Warming Swindle'. The film was directed by Martin Durkin and seeks to debunk what it claims is the misinformation being promoted by some proponents of global warming. At the time of writing this issue outline the documentary was available in its entirety from both YouTube and Google video. Go to YouTube and enter The Great Global Warming Swindle in the search box. (Students may need to do this at home as most schools do not allow access to YouTube.)
On March 14, 2007, the British newspaper The Independent, published a detailed criticism of 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' which indicated that a number of the sources the program used were either out of date or had been distorted. The claim was made that more accurate or current information would not have supported the program's case.
The Independent's report can be found at http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2355956.ece
The Woods Hole Research Center conducts research, identifies policies, and supports educational activities that advance the well-being of humans and of the environment. It states its mission as 'to understand the causes and consequences of environmental change as a basis for policy solutions for a better world.'
Its site supplies a range of data, much of it in graphic form, to support connections between greenhouse gases, global warming and human activities. This material can be found at http://www.whrc.org/resources/online_publications/warming_earth/scientific_evidence.htm
The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) is a United States non-profit public policy organization dedicated to advancing the principles of free enterprise and limited government. It has given over a significant portion of its Internet site to countering claims made by those who argue that global warming is caused by human activity and is likely to have dire effects.
It counter arguments can be found at http://www.cei.org/pdf/5331.pdf
On May 25 2006 the ABC science information program, Catalyst, telecast a segment titled 'Tipping point' which looks at the apparent impact of climate change on three vulnerable Australian species.
Windows media player and real player versions of the program, together with a full transcript, can be found at http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/s1647466.htm
PBS is a non-profit media enterprise owned and operated by the United States' 354 public television stations. PBS uses non-commercial television, the Internet and other media to inform Americans through quality programs and education services.
PBS has offered extensive information on global warming. Its site presents a valuable overview of the global warming debate via interviews with prominent exponents of all positions. Links to these interviews can be found at http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/warming/debate/
The Internet site for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can be found at http://www.ipcc.ch/
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. It is open to all members of the UN and WMO.
The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and response options.
The IPCC's fourth report on climate change will be available on this site from April 6, 2007.
The Internet site for the United Nations' Framework Convention on Climate Change can be found at http://unfccc.int/2860.php
The site includes links to "Essential Background" on climate change and to the Kyoto Protocol. It also includes a wide range of media reports of actions being taken worldwide to attempt to moderate global warming.
The science magazine New Scientist Environment has complied an index allowing Internet users to access many of its recent articles on climate change and global warming. This index can be found at http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/climate-change/
Stop Global Warming is a United States based non-partisan public information and lobby group which aims to influence public opinion and political leaders toward reducing the emission of greenhouse gases world-wide.
The group's home page can be found at http://www.stopglobalwarming.org/default.asp
Arguments suggesting global warming is caused by human activities and is a serious threat
1. Increases in greenhouse gases correspond with increases in temperature
Through the study of ancient ice cores from Antarctica it is possible to compare atmospheric concentrations of the dominant greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere with temperature variations over the past 400 thousand years of the earth's history.
It has been claimed that a visual comparison of the two trends indicates a very tight connection between their performance, with fluctuations in one plot almost exactly mirrored in the other for more than 400 thousand years. But suddenly in the 1800s, as the Industrial Revolution takes off, atmospheric CO2 concentrations begin an unprecedented upward climb, rising rapidly from 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in the early 1800s to a current level of 376 ppmv, 77 ppmv above the highest concentrations previously attained in the course of the preceding 400 thousand years.
A range of conservationists, including Al Gore, have used this data to suggest that increases in atmospheric CO2 have caused increased in the Earth's temperature.
2. A wide range of human activities create greenhouse gases
Though the relative significance of the different causes of temperature increases are a matter of some dispute, there appears to be a strong consensus that greenhouse gases are a major contributory factor and that human activities have lead to a dramatic growth in the emission of such gases.
The IPCC wrote in its Second Assessment Report in 1995, that climate has changed over the past century and that the twentieth century had a mean temperature "at least as warm as any other century since 1400 A.D." Their report noted that the dramatic increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere over the past 150 years (from about 280 parts per million to about 376 parts per million) is largely due to anthropogenic (human-caused) effects and concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."
The New York Times in an environment special published on March 25, 2007, stated, 'The average surface temperature of earth has increased more than 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1900 and the rate of warming has been nearly three times the century-long average since 1970.
Almost all experts studying the recent climate history of the earth agree now that human activities, mainly the release of heat-trapping gases from smokestacks, tailpipes, and burning forests, are probably the dominant force driving the trend.
The gases add to the planet's natural greenhouse effect, allowing sunlight in, but preventing some of the resulting heat from radiating back to space.
Drawing on research on past climate shifts, observations of current conditions, and computer simulations, many climate experts say that without big curbs in greenhouse gas emissions, the 21st century could see temperatures rise 3 to 8 degrees, weather patterns sharply shift, ice sheets shrink and seas rise several feet.'
3. The current increase in world temperatures seems to represent an unprecedented warming
A range of climate experts have indicated that the current rate of global temperature increase is unprecedented and represents a significant threat to human and other animal life.
Stop Climate Chaos, a public information and lobby group, established in Britain to pressure governments to take policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has a section of its site where it details the rises in temperature particular to the last century and outlines some of the predictions regarding future increases. It notes that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year on global record as indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The Panel has also claimed that the Earth is warming faster than at any time in the past 10,000 years and that the burning of coal, oil and gas has increased the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by 30% over natural levels. It has also been noted that the summer of 2003 was Europe's hottest for 500 years, with a heatwave that caused some 28,000 premature deaths across the continent.
It has been suggested that by 2100 the world could be 6§C hotter. This was the upper estimate of the IPCC. Other recent research, including some conducted at Oxford University, has suggested increases could be as much as 10§C on average.
It has been noted that Europe's capitals have warmed, some by 2øC in the last 30 years. London's average maximum summer temperature increased the most.
Stop Climate Chaos has also noted that in one region of Mozambique recent temperatures have risen from 30øC to 49øC in the hot season and are less cold in the cool season, changing the timing of the rains.
4. Global warming will cause a wide range of negative consequences for people
Stop Climate Chaos, a public information and lobby group, established in Britain to pressure governments to take policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has a section of its site where it details the social impact of global temperature increases. It cites a range of authorities to substantiate the claims that it makes.
The United Nations has claimed that the economic costs of global warming are doubling every decade. A number of climatologists together with the conservation group People and Planet have argued that Global warming will submerge many low-lying island nations entirely causing great economic and social distress.
People and Planet have further claimed that there has been a 40% drop in the amount of arctic ice since the 1970s. It has been suggested that were this effect to spread, and the northern ice fields to melt, a rise in sea levels of up to seven meters would occur. This would not simply overwhelm low-lying countries like Bangladesh, but also major western cities such as London, Rome and New York
The relief organisation, Christian Aid, has also suggested in the next 15 years, displacement, disruption to agriculture and food supplies, and damage and destruction to infrastructure would be likely to lead to economic and political instability, both within countries and across international borders, and even to wars as environmental refugees seek new homes and countries clash over scarce water and food supplies. The industrial countries also could find themselves under immense pressure from huge numbers of environmental refugees from the developing world.
5. There will be severe economic consequences if global warming is not addressed
The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, is a 700-page report released on October 30, 2006 by economist Sir Nicholas Stern for the British government, which discusses the effect of climate change and global warming on the world economy.
Its main conclusions are that one percent of global GDP is required to be invested a year in order to mitigate the effects of climate change, and that failure to do so could risk global GDP being up to twenty percent lower than it otherwise might be.
The Stern Review suggests that climate change threatens to be the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, and it provides prescriptions including environmental taxes to minimize the economic and social disruptions.
The Centre for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Swiss Re, an insurance company based in Switzerland released a report at the end of 2006 which argued that the adverse health impacts of global warming are likely to cause severe economic consequences.
"Global climate change and the ripples of that change will affect every aspect of life, from municipal budgets for snowplowing to the spread of disease," the report stated For example, the effects of hurricanes "can extend far beyond coastal properties to the heartland through their impact on offshore drilling and oil prices."
Although industrialised countries produce the most greenhouse gases blamed for global warming, the study points out that developing countries suffer the worst consequences.
"Poor countries and their people are most vulnerable to the increased risks from rising water levels, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the spread of infectious diseases including malaria, intensified water scarcity and failing agricultural crops, and the extinction of species", said Brian Dawson, a senior climate change policy advisor with UNDP.
The costs of climate change fall disproportionately on developing countries, but money to cope with theses challenges is scarce, Professor Dawson stated. "The developing world heavily depends on their ecosystems. If there is a drought, the developed countries can buy food from elsewhere. But a lot of people living in the developing world depend on what the season provides on food."
6. Some of those who downplay global warming have a conflict of interest
Some of those who argue that global warming will have relatively small consequences have been accused of being in the employ of enterprises producing greenhouse gases. For example it was reported that an academic at the University of Virginia accepted $150,000 from coal interests and coal-burning electric utility companies to continue the research supporting his challenge of global warming. Further, a number of major fossil fuel producers, such as ExxonMobil, have come under scrutiny for funding global warming deniers.
Concern has also been expressed that the Australian Government appointed the managing director of research and technological development of a major mining corporation as its advisor on energy policy to the Office of the Chief Scientist.
The Australian Senate Employment, Workplace Relations and Education Committee found that the "potential and apparent conflicts of interest which arise from ... dual part-time roles are as damaging to the Office of the Chief Scientist ... They erode public confidence in the political and administrative process and call into question the integrity of high level scientific advice provided to Government. The public interest is not being served as long as the perception of a conflict of interest remains and is not properly managed."
7. It is important the world takes immediate action to slow global warming
There are two bases on which it is argued the world needs to take immediate action to reduce the level of carbon dioxide emissions. The first is that from a cost effective point of view, the more quickly action is taken the less expensive it will be. The Stern Review on climate change recommended to the British Government that delays in emission reduction would ultimately make the process more expensive for both industry and the consumer.
The other major argument raised, including within An Inconvenient Truth, is that ecologically the world is approaching a 'tipping point', that is, that greenhouse gas emissions may reach a point where their effects are virtually irreversible.
Arguments suggesting that global warming is not caused by human activity and is not a serious threat
1. Changes in the sun are the primary cause of global warming
Dr. Tim Ball, a retired professor of climatology from the University of Winnipeg, has claimed that the sun rather than human-generated greenhouse gases is the major cause of global warming.
Dr Ball has compared the investigation of climate change through looking at greenhouse gases with that of trying to determine why a car has broken down by looking at insignificant mechanical components.
'Ignoring the sun is like ignoring the engine, ignoring water vapour is like ignoring the transmission and focusing on human produced CO2 (carbon dioxide) is like looking at one nut on the right rear wheel,' Dr Ball has claimed.
Other scientists have also stressed the primary importance of changes in the sun's activity as a cause of changes in the earth's temperature. Dr. Sallie Baliunas, a scientific advisory board member for the Friends of Science, has stated, 'There is much new evidence showing the sun has cycles over centuries [and that] the earth has warmings and coolings that follow in step with the sun. The sun's changes [are] one reason why the earth has climate change.'
2. Human activities are not a significant cause of global warming
It has been claimed that marked fluctuations in the world's climate patterns, that is, climate change, have always occurred. They may be marginally effected by human activity, but are not caused by it.
Professor Bob Carter, a research geologist at James Cook University, Townsville, and a founder member of the Australian Environmental Foundation, has stated, 'Global warming and climate change are natural phenomena. We live on a dynamic planet, and the average global temperature is always getting either hotter or colder; stasis for long periods being very unusual.
As well ... humans have a manifest effect on local climate through building cities and clearing native vegetation. Therefore, most scientists believe that, summed all over the globe, these local impacts must add up to a human global effect on climate. As a logical proposition that is pretty unassailable. But if the question is rephrased somewhat. as "do man's activities have a measurable effect on global climate?" then matters are not so simple, for the answer is "no".
It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct from natural variation. Accordingly, the IPCCs alarmist case regarding dangerous human climate change rests not on empirical data, but on unvalidated computer models, failed greenhouse theory and anecdotal accounts of climate changes, such as glaciers melting, that may well be of wholly or largely natural origin.'
3. Greenhouse gases, especially CO2, are not contributing significantly to global warming
There are a number of scientists who argue that the consequences of increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have been overstated or misstated.
William Kininmonth, the author of 'Climate Change: A Natural Hazard', a former head of the National Climate Centre and a consultant to the World Meteorological Organisation, has stated, 'Start with carbon dioxide. As a greenhouse gas, it is a spent force for climate change; its present concentration is slightly less than 400 parts per million. Calculations show that 66 per cent of the greenhouse effect of CO2 is caused by the first 50ppm. With each doubling of concentration, (from 50 to 100, then to 200 and 400ppm), the incremental advance of the greenhouse effect is reduced.
Even for a further doubling to 800ppm, as projected by 2100 in the case of unabated fossil fuel usage, the increase in the greenhouse effect will only be 10 per cent of the present component attributable to CO2. Overall, CO2 is a relatively minor contributor to the greenhouse effect, which is dominated by the varying water vapour and clouds of the atmosphere.
Increasing the CO2 concentration will have little additional effect.
Evaporation of water vapour will constrain the Earth's temperature and prevent a runaway greenhouse effect. Back radiation from the atmosphere because of greenhouse gases (water vapour, CO2 and so on), clouds and aerosols raises surface temperatures. But surface temperatures are also constrained by evaporation of water from plants, moist soil and the oceans. The tropical oceans generally do not exceed 30C and it is only over the arid inland that daytime temperatures exceed 40C. Any increase in back radiation because of increased CO2 will largely be offset by additional evaporation that will constrain the rise of surface temperature.'
4. Global warming causes an increase in CO2 emissions not the reverse
It has been claimed by some scientists that arguing that rises in CO2 are the cause of increases in the earth's temperature is a confusion of cause and effect. According to this line of argument, it is increases in the earth's temperature which lead to increases in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Those who hold this view maintain that as the earth's temperature rises the seas slowly warm and as they do so they release more than the usual amount of CO2 they hold, thus leading to an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Because the seas heat well after the earth's atmosphere and surface, rises in CO2 follow rather than cause rises in the earth's temperature.
This point has been made by Herald Sun columnist, Andrew Bolt, in a piece in which he attempts to argue against a number of the claims made by Al Gore in his documentary 'An Inconvenient Truth'. Mr Bolt states, 'Gore says ice cores from Antarctica, that go back 650,000 years, show the world got warmer each time there was more carbon dioxide in the air.
In fact, as the University of California's Professor Jeff Severinghaus and others note, at least three studies of ice cores show the earth first warmed and only then came more carbon dioxide, many hundreds of years later. So does extra carbon dioxide cause a warming world, or vice versa?'
Similarly, Professor Ian Clark, from the department of earth sciences at the University of Ottawa, asserts that his research into naturally-occurring CO2, tracked over the earth's history, showed that 'CO2 acts as a result of temperature rise and [is] not a cause of temperature rise.'
5. Many of the global warming doomsayers are politically motivated
It has been suggested that many politicians who claim to be motivated by concerns about global warming and a desire to avert environmental disaster are really just seeking political mileage out of a popular issue.
There are those maintain that one of Al Gore's aims in generating concern about global warming is to launch a new political career using this issue as a platform.
Related claims have also been made in relation to political conservatives such as Australia's Prime Minister, John Howard, who has moved from serious scepticism about the issue to cautious interest.
On October 26, 2006, Katharine Murphy, a commentator for The Age, noted that growing concern within the electorate about global warming was forcing Australian politicians of all political persuasions to develop apparently constructive policies on the issue.
Referring specifically to Mr Howard, Katharine Murphy noted, 'After a decade of trying to dismiss global warming as an elite preoccupation by strange hemp-wearing eco-warriors and the loathed latte set, John Howard has suddenly shifted gear.
Backbenchers who have been worried about climate change feel they are finally being listened to. Canberra is knocking itself out telling the community they have the political will to deal with rising temperatures, although we are not sure yet how.
... with an election looming next year, the Government is busy, busy, busy. One day, it's buckets of money to farmers on the bones of their backsides in the dry. Howard flew back to Australia from the Pacific last night and will head straight to the west of NSW to visit drought-stricken farmers with a plane full of television crews in hot pursuit.'
6. Recent research suggests that some earlier estimates of climate change and its consequences were extreme
In September 2006 a draft report on climate change suggested that earlier estimates of temperature increase and its consequences may be incorrect. This draft report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change appears to support the conclusion that earlier projections were exaggerated.
Scientists are now projecting a 3C rise on the average global daily temperature by the end of this century. The Draft Fourth Assessment Report says the temperature increase could be contained to 2C by 2100.
In 2001, the scientists predicted temperature rises of between 1.4C and 5.8C on current levels by 2100, but better science has led them to adjust this to a narrower band of between 2C and 4.5C. The new projections run counter to some of the more alarmist scenarios raised by previous modelling, which have suggested that sea levels could rise by almost 1m over the same period. The report projects a rise in sea levels by the end of the century of between 14cm and 43cm, with further rises expected in following centuries caused by melting polar ice.
The new projections forecast damage by global warming, such as stronger cyclones, modest sea-level rises and further shrinking of the arctic sea ice. However, such damage is likely to be of a less extreme nature than that which was previously anticipated based on predictions of higher temperatures.
7. Alarmism about global warming has become a fashion
It has been claimed that warnings in relation to global warming have become a fashion centred on extreme, dramatic and frightening claims.
One who holds this view is British climate change scientist, Mike Hulme. Professor Hulme, the Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change has recently stated, 'Climate change is a reality and science confirms that human activities are heavily implicated in this change. But [during the past] few years a new environmental phenomenon has been constructed: the phenomenon of catastrophic climate change. It seems that mere climate change was not going to be bad enough and so now it must be catastrophic to be worthy of attention. The increasing use of this pejorative term, and its bedfellow qualifiers chaotic, irreversible [and] rapid, has altered the public discourse around climate change.
This discourse is now characterised by phrases such as "climate change is worse than we thought", that we are approaching "irreversible tipping in the Earth's climate", and that we are "at the point of no return".
I have found myself increasingly chastised by climate change campaigners when my public statements and lectures on climate change have not satisfied their thirst for environmental drama and exaggerated rhetoric.'
Further implications
There appears to be general consensus that the earth's temperature is rising. There is less agreement as to the rate at which this will continue to occur in the future. There also appears to be fairly general agreement that greenhouse gas emissions are a contributory factor, though the extent of the role they play is less readily agreed upon.
The difficulty with this debate is that the stakes are so high. The adverse consequences which many reputable scientists have predicted if the greenhouse gas phenomenon continues would result in enormous social and economic dislocation.
On the opposite side of the equation, making the changes to energy use and lifestyle that reducing greenhouse gas emissions would require would not be easy and would have serious adverse consequences for a country such as Australia which is a major exporter and user of fossil fuels.
The Australian Government has to this point decided to maintain the status quo. Mr Howard has repeatedly stated his intention to protect Australia's resource industry, and it is essentially on this basis that Australia has refused to sign the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement which would require us to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.
However, recent developments within both Australia and overseas, appear to have affected popular perceptions of this issue. The combined impact of the British Stern Review and the fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change seems to have lead to a change in the importance the Australian electorate now attaches to climate change. Concern is also likely to have been fed by record droughts and severe bushfires which appear to have been linked in the popular mind with the greenhouse gas phenomenon.
Thus the Australian Government's rhetoric on the importance of climate change has shifted. Where previously climate change was dismissed as a preoccupation of alarmists, it is now being presented as an issue of serious concern. It remains to be seen what either a Liberal or a Labor Government would seriously do in relation to greenhouse gas emissions, however, a Rudd Labor Government would be committed to signing the Kyoto Protocol.
Newspaper items used in the compilation of this issue outline
The Age: January 2, page 13, comment by Tim Flannery, `Whither our weather?'.
The Age: January 1, page 12, editorial, `A time to face up to the facts of living sustainably'.
The Age: January 25, page 16, news item (ref to gift to high schools in Australia of Al Gore film, An Inconvenient Truth) by D Rood, `Gore film made free and convenient for schools'.
The Age: February 28, page 6, news item (ref to Canberra meeting to launch new book) by Karen Murphy et al, `Greenhouse sceptics to congregate'.
The Age: January 29, page 13, comment by Tim Flannery, `If scientists' hands are tied, we fly partly blind into the future'.
The Age: January 30, page 6, news item by Liz Minchin, `Frozen in time, ice tells tale of rising emissions'.
The Age: January 30, page 1, news item (with projected effects on endangered animals species etc, incl Great Barrier Reef corals) by Liz Minchin, `Reef "facing extinction"'
The Australian: January 29, page 13, news item, `Ten years to reverse the global meltdown'.
The Australian: February 1, page 13, comment by Andrew Bolt, `Tim Flannery's baseless hysteria over global warming'.
The Australian: February 27, page 13, editorial, `Carbon reality check'.
The Australian: February 27, page 3, news item by Roberts and Kerr, `Climate fix costs dearest in Australia'.
The Australian: February 28, page 14, comment by Janet Albrechtsen, `More facts, less evangelism in warming debate'.
The Australian: March 1, page 7, news item (ref to Sir Arvi Parbo at Canberra book launch) by J Kerr, `Blast at hype over climate change'.
The Australian: March 17, page 19, comment (ref to alternative explanations for warming) by Matthew Warren, `Rebels of the sun'.
The Australian: March 17, page 17, news item, `Northern winter warmest recorded'.
The Australian: March 17, page 3, news item, `(World) Heat record topped'.
The Australian: March 23, page 15, comment (ref to Al Gore) by Frank Devine, `Look past the preening pollie and take a broad view'
The Herald-Sun: January 31, page 21, comment (on Tim Flannery and global warming) by Andrew Bolt, `Hyped to hysteria'.
The Herald-Sun: February 28, page 21, comment (ref to Al Gore film, An inconvenient truth) by Andrew Bolt, `Oscar for a panic merchant'
The Herald-Sun: March 2, page 21, comment (ref to Al Gore and Oscar-winning documentary film An inconvenient truth) by Andrew Bolt, `It's a joke, right!'. Using google to find newspaper items still available on the Web
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