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Further implications
A number of analysts have stressed that the consequences of developing automatic vehicle technology may not be as clear-cut as is commonly thought. The discussion presented below has been taken from a report released on December 22, 2017, by the Victoria Transport Policy Institute, titled 'Autonomous Vehicle Implementation Predictions: Implications for Transport Planning'. The full text can be accessed at
'The future is ultimately unknowable, yet planning requires predicting future needs. Many decision-makers and practitioners (planners, engineers and analysts) wonder how autonomous (also called self-driving or robotic) vehicles will affect future travel, and therefore how best to design roads, parking and public transit systems, and whether our policies should encourage or restrict their use.
There is considerable uncertainty about these factors. Advocates predict that by 2030, autonomous vehicles will be sufficiently convenient and affordable to displace most human-operated vehicles, will provide independent mobility to non-drivers, reduce the stress and tedium of driving, and be a panacea for congestion, accident and pollution problems, but there are reasons to be sceptical.
Most optimistic predictions are made by people with financial interests in the industry, and their predictions are often based on experience with electronic innovations such as digital cameras, smart phones and the Internet. Their analysis often overlooks significant obstacles and costs associated with transportation innovations, such as unsolved technical challenges, and ways that self-driving vehicles may increase traffic congestion and accident problems.
Motor vehicles last an order of magnitude longer, cost two orders of magnitude more, rely more on public infrastructure, and impose much greater external impacts than personal computers, cameras or telephones. Electronic systems often fail. With as digital cameras, mobile phones and the Internet, such failures are frustrating and wasteful; with motor vehicles, they can be deadly to occupants and other road users. As a result, autonomous vehicles are likely take longer to develop and provide smaller net benefits than optimists predict.
These factors have significant transportation policy and planning implications. Motor vehicle travel relies on public infrastructure and can impose significant external costs, and so require more public investment and regulation than most other technologies. For example, many potential benefits, including congestion and pollution reductions, depend on public roads having dedicated lanes for autonomous vehicle platooning (numerous vehicles driving close together at relatively high speeds). Policy makers will need to decide when the potential benefits justify devoting such valuable public assets to these expensive new vehicles, their terms of use, such as whether they should pay an extra road user fee, and the enforcement measures needed to prevent human drivers from trying to join those platoons...
Autonomous vehicles can provide independent mobility for non-drivers, including people with disabilities, adolescents, and others or who for any reason cannot or should not drive. This can provide direct benefits to those travellers, reduce chauffeuring burdens on their family members and friends, and in some cases increase their access to education and employment opportunities, increasing their economic productivity. Some affluent non-drivers living in sprawled areas may purchase personal autonomous vehicles, and a larger number of non-drivers are likely to use autonomous taxi services if they become convenient and affordable.
On the other hand, optimistic predictions of autonomous vehicle benefits may cause some communities to reduce support for public transit services which may reduce mobility options for non-drivers. Dedicating highway lanes for autonomous vehicle platooning may reduce capacity for human-operated traffic.
Autonomous vehicles can [also] reduce driver stress and tedium. Self-driving cars can be mobile offices, playrooms or bedrooms, as illustrated below, allowing passengers to be productive or rest while travelling (WSJ 2017). This can reduce travel time unit costs (dollars per hour).
On the other hand, self-driving vehicles can introduce new stresses and discomforts. Some studies suggest that travellers will experience 'access anxiety', if they fear that their vehicle cannot reach a desired destination, [while] to minimize cleaning and vandalism costs, self-driving taxis and buses will have 'hardened' interiors (vinyl seats and stainless steel surfaces), minimal accessories, and security cameras.'
The above discussion is a reminder that we cannot yet know what the future will bring regarding automatic vehicles and that they carry a mixed potential.