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Further implications
The issue of how best to accommodate those who have returned to Australia for their two weeks of mandatory period of quarantine remains a difficult one. The pressure from Australians wishing to return to Australia continues to grow. As of February 2, 2021, there were nearly 40,000 Australians overseas who wanted to come home.
Further, the economic impact of closed borders, especially the loss of overseas tourists and foreign students, continues to exacerbate the damage COVID19 has inflicted on the Australian economy, notably in terms of increased unemployment. Now that Australia is beginning to hope that it may be able to halt the spread of COVID19 within the Australian community, there is less tolerance in some quarters of our largely impermeable borders. Any liberalisation of border restrictions will, however, depend on Australia's ability to minimise the infection risk posed by those allowed into the country. It is in this context that the effectiveness of the country's quarantine facilities has attracted so much attention. Most returning travellers have been quarantined at facilities in Australia's two largest cities, with the nation's largest airports, Sydney, and Melbourne. All major cities keeping returnees in quarantine have experienced some level of breach, with the most severe instances having occurred in Melbourne which in 2020 resulted in the state experiencing a second wave of infections and a four-month lockdown of the capital. In early 2021, another quarantine hotel breach saw a five-day snap lockdown of the whole state. Such events have had Victoria repeatedly put an embargo on overseas flights arriving in Melbourne. They have also left many states and city centres apprehensive about the safety of accepting large numbers of returning Australians. The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, has suggested that the National Cabinet consider reducing the number of Australians able to return home, only allowing in those who have 'compassionate grounds' for wanting to return.
This proposal has been condemned by many as denying expatriate Australians their legal right to return to their country of origin. While continuing to lock out returning Australians and overseas visitors also poses significant economic problems for Australia. Australia's tourism industry and tertiary education sector rely heavily on visitors from overseas and on foreign students. In 2019, approximately 9.4 million tourists visited Australia from overseas. There was a total of 4.4 million international visitors to New South Wales in the 2019 calendar year and 3.1 million international visitors to Victoria. In 2019, tourism in Australia accounted for 3.1 percent of the national GDP, contributing $60.8 billion to the Australian economy. Of this, 26 percent came from international visitors to Australia.
While these figures are significant, the federal government has argued that a growth in local tourism could help address the shortfall. For the tertiary education sector, especially in Victoria where tertiary education is a major contributor to the state's economy, the answer is not so simple. A report cited by Victoria University on November 10, 2020, argued that new modelling demonstrated that if Australia's borders remained closed there would only be about 300,000 international students living in Australia by June of 2021, a drop of around 50 percent.
The report further noted that the problem was not confined to the university sector which was having to lay off staff and reduce courses. It also affects other sectors. About 57 percent, or $21.4 billion of the $37.5 billion in annual revenue associated with international education comes from the other goods and services purchased in the wider economy by overseas students. International students contribute $13.7 billion to the Victorian economy in a normal year. The manager of Avalon Airport, Justin Giddings, has clearly indicated the airport's enthusiasm to have a quarantine facility built on its land and has indicated that it could help secure the return of international students to Victoria. Mr Giddings has stated, 'It could easily be bigger than Howard Springs and I certainly would be very comfortable with having the likes of international students here, if that's what the government wanted.' Critics have argued that although Australian states must protect their citizens from the risk of infection by controlling their borders, ways must also be found to allow at least more targeted entry of some visitors or returnees. The solution is likely to be multipronged - relying on better hotel quarantine procedures (including improved choice of hotels with suitable ventilation and improved training of staff), the use of a larger number of regional quarantine facilities, and the rapid uptake of COVID19 vaccinations within the Australian community and by those seeking to enter this country.