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Further implications
The Prime Minister's concern that many Australians have not heard about the Indigenous Voice to Parliament appears not to be well based. When commenting on the use of Shaquille O'Neal to spread awareness of the Voice, Anthony Albanese speculated that many of those hearing about the issue through O'Neal may well be hearing about the proposal for the first time. Recent research suggests that may not be the case.
In August 2022, JWS Research released survey results on the extent of popular support for an Indigenous Voice to Parliament enshrined in the Australian Constitution. The surveys were conducted between Friday 12th and Monday 15th August 2022, approximately a fortnight before the Prime Minister held a press conference with O'Neal.
The results showed that 79 percent of those surveyed had heard of the issue. However, it suggests that much of the electorate's knowledge of the issue is superficial with 37 percent claiming to know only a little about the idea of an Indigenous Voice to Parliament and a similar number (34 percent) aware of it in name only. Just 8 percent of adults claim to already know a lot and 15 percent claimed to know nothing at all.
Despite the lack of detailed knowledge of the issue, 47 percent of those surveyed are in favour of establishing an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. As it seems likely that the referendum will be held in some 12 months\ time, the initial level of support should be encouraging to those who want the referendum to be passed. However, to pass, the proposal needs both an overall majority and a majority of the states. State results are less encouraging, with 40 percent support in both South and Western Australia and 38 percent in Queensland. Securing a majority of the states may be difficult.
Currently the Labor government seems more focused on spreading awareness of the Voice than on developing detailed knowledge and conducting debate. The above survey data suggests that now may already be the time for deepening knowledge and engaging in debate. However, the government's hesitancy is understandable.
Australia's last referendum was in 1999 on the question of whether the country should become a republic. Despite pre-referendum surveys indicating majority support for a republic, the referendum failed. Many commentators have argued that this was because the debate became bogged down in whether the president who would replace the monarch should be elected by the populace or appointed by the parliament. Thus, though there appeared to be majority support for a republic, there was not majority support for how it would be implemented.
To this point, the government has not given explicit detail on how the Indigenous Voice which would give advice to Parliament would be formed. It is likely that the government does not want to lose the level of popular support that already exists for the proposal through disputes over the details of implementation.
Using high profile figures to promote the cause may be seen as a way of generating further popular approval while reducing the risk of divisive debate. However, it is a strategy not without risk. Some opponents of the referendum proposal appear to be exploiting the use of an imported figure like O'Neal to undermine support for the Voice.
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