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Right: Adrian Bayley: murdered woman while on bail release.

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Arguments supporting Victoria's prison policies

1. Certain categories of crime are increasing in Victoria
Those who support Victoria's increasing rates of imprisonment and 'tough-on-crime' approach argue that although there has been an overall decline in crime in Victoria and Australia as a whole, certain categories of crime are continuing to increase.
According to the most recent nationwide Productivity Commission report into the performance of government agencies, Victoria has grounds for concern regarding the rate at which some categories of crime are being committed. The report detailed crime statistics for each state with Victoria recording near average statistics for most crime categories; however, crime rates were up for some offences. Assault was up 27 per cent while break-ins were up almost 10 per cent. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-25/victorians-dont-feel-safe-at-home-crime-report-shows/9359448
Data released in December 2017 indicated that sexual assault in Victoria was up 10 percent relative to data issued in October 2015. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-14/signficant-downward-trend-in-victorian-crime-rate/9257686
According to figures released in May 2019 by insurer Budget Direct, Victoria had the most car thefts with 29 percent of all thefts in 2017. https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/car-theft-statistics.html
There has also been a significant increase in carjackings. Crime Statistics Agency data shows that from April 2015 to March 2016 there were 171 incidents where motor vehicle thefts co-occurred with robberies. This is an 80 percent increase over the 95 carjackings in Victoria the previous year. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/carjackings-soar-80-per-cent-in-victoria/news-story/b9ba7c01ff0e2f1e02a0c19ec014dc82
Edward O'Donohue, the shadow police minister, has stated, 'Carjackings were virtually unknown in Victoria until relatively recently but as...recent incidents...show, they have become all too common, causing enormous angst in the community.' https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/carjackings-soar-80-per-cent-in-victoria/news-story/b9ba7c01ff0e2f1e02a0c19ec014dc82
The most recent Crime Statistic Agency figures covering the 12 months from March 31, 2018, to March 31, 2019, show significant increases in several types of crime. These figures indicate: assault and related offences (up 3.3% in the last 12 months, from 43,327 to 44,772); stalking, harassment and threatening behaviour (up 5.8% in the last 12 months, from 11,689 to 12,366); drug use and possession (up 12.9% in the last 12 months, from 23,066 to 26,051) and weapons and explosives offences (up 8.5% in the last 12 months, from 14,695 to 15,937). https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/recorded-offences
A Crime Statistics Agency analysis of Assault Victorian data in the 12 months to December 2017 found 29 percent of criminal incidents involving assault were recorded with only an assault offence type; the other 71 percent were recorded with other offence types associated with the criminal incident. Of the other offences that were associated with assault incidents, Property damage was the most frequently reported offence type, present in 8 percent of the criminal incidents of assault, followed by Breaches of orders (8 percent) and Stalking, harassment and threatening behaviour (6 percent). https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/media-centre/news/spotlight-assault-and-related-offences
Domestic violence incidents (now referred to as 'family incidents') are another area where there are ongoing increases in the number of reported incidents (recorded events) and of confirmed offences. The most recent Crime Statistic Data indicates the number of offences related to family incidents increased 6.9% (6,196 offences) from 89,197 to 95,393. https://www.crimestatistics.vic.gov.au/recorded-offences
Victoria Police recorded 76,124 family violence incidents in 2017-18, up 17 per cent compared to five years ago. The figures were revealed in Crime Statistics Agency's annual family violence snapshot, which includes data from police, courts, public hospitals and support services. It shows police sought 11,889 family violence intervention orders (FVIOs) to protect victims and potential victims over the year (2017-18). https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/law-order/victoria-records-increase-in-family-violence-over-fiveyear-period/news-story/c1c9c64198f8cc29f6b00072a33eeb95

2. Bail and parole reform was necessary in Victoria
Those who defend the growing number of people being held in Victoria's prisons argue that this is simply an inevitable consequence of necessary reforms to bail and parole provisions in Victoria.
Committing an illegal act while on bail is termed a breach of bail conditions. Data regarding crimes committed by people while on bail is seen as evidence that Victorian magistrates have been granting bail to those who pose a risk to the community. There have also been long-standing complaints that parole has been granted too readily and that breaches of parole are not acted on.
Between 2010 and 2015 bail breaches soared by 278 per cent, which led critics to raise serious concerns about magistrates and judges granting bail to those facing criminal charges in Victoria. Victims of Crime Commissioner, Greg Davies, termed the dramatic increase in bail breaches an 'out-of-control problem' that required an urgent response from government and the judiciary. Davies stated, 'This is a clear signal that not everyone can be rehabilitated and not everyone should be granted bail.' https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victorias-bail-system-is-in-disarray-20151001-gjz5w2.html
In addition to bail breach statistics suggesting many of those granted bail posed a threat to public safety, several serious, high-profile crimes were committed by those on bail or parole which provoked criticism of Victoria's bail and parole system.
In 2002, Earnest Bayley was sentenced to 11 years imprisonment and released on parole after serving the minimum term of eight years for 16 counts of rape against five sex workers. Despite his conviction and a previous history of assault and abduction, Bayley was not sentenced as a serious sexual offender, which would have permitted a longer sentence. While on parole, he committed a serious assault; however, after conviction and appealing his sentence, Bayley was released on bail. His parole was not revoked. Seven months later, while still on parole, bail and awaiting his appeal, Bayley raped and murdered 29-year-old Irish-born woman, Jill Meagher. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/adrian-bayley-how-the-justice-system-left-him-free-to-stalk-melbournes-streets-20150325-1m70ps.html
The coroner, Ian Gray, judged, 'Gillian Meagher's death was preventable. A more rigorous, risk-averse approach by CCS (Community Correctional Services) and the APB (Adult Parole Board) would have led to a cancellation of Bayley's parole. The approach taken is difficult to understand ... it did not bring dangerous and high-risk parolees immediately to account.' https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-27/jill-meaghers-murder-preventable,-coroner-says/7455378
Other cases of serious crimes committed in Victoria by offenders while on bail or parole include Greg Anderson's murder of his 11-year-old son Luke Batty, in September 2014; Sean Price's murder of 17-year-old schoolgirl Masa Vukotic, in March 2015; and the murder of six Melbournians deliberately run down in Bourke Street Mall by James Gargasoulas, in January 2017. https://www.mamamia.com.au/murders-by-people-on-bail/
The former Director of Public Prosecutions and Supreme Court Justice, the Hon Paul Coghlan QC, who in April 2018 released his formal review of Victoria's bail system undertaken for the state government, acknowledged the extent to which high-profile cases such as these undermined public faith in the bail system.
Referring specifically to the Bourke Street Mall murders of November 2017, Coghlan stated, 'Mr Gargasoulas, was on bail at the time...He had several warrants executed and had been released on bail earlier on 14 January 2017 by a bail justice. If bail had been refused then, these [later] offences might not have occurred... The fact that Mr Gargasoulas was on bail (and other publicised cases of people offending whilst on bail) has caused significant community concern about whether the bail system is working properly.' https://engage.vic.gov.au/bailreview
The upshot of this history of misapplied bail and parole provisions has been the progressive tightened of the regulations regarding bail and parole in Victoria. The Victorian government has, for example, decided to act on all 37 recommendations of the Coghlan Bail Review. The Victorian Attorney-General, Martin Pakula, has claimed that this will give Victoria 'the most onerous bail conditions in the country'. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-08/victoria-set-to-tighten-bail-justice-system-after-review/8505506
Critics of Victoria's provisions for granting bail and parole argue that there is still room for further reform. A continuing area of concern is those facing charges of family violence who are released on bail pending trial. Police statistics reveal a total of 2806 family violence intervention orders (IVOs) were broken by people who had been released back into the community on bail in the 12 months to September 2018. There was a total of 14,806 criminal offences reported against those breaching bail conditions during this12-month period, the most common being contravention of an IVO.  https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/eight-times-each-day-in-victoria-someone-on-bail-breaches-a-family-violence-order-20181220-p50ne3.html

3. Victorians are becoming more apprehensive regarding certain categories of crime
Those who support harsher bail and parole provisions and increased penalties for crimes argue that governments need to respect and respond to community fears. Apprehensions regarding crime are based on experience of crime within Victorian jurisdictions, on the reported incidence of crime and on high-profile crimes that shift popular perceptions.
The proportion of Victorians who indicated they felt 'safe' walking at night dropped from 50 to 45 per cent in 2016-17. This made Victorians the most apprehensive respondents in Australia, more fearful for their safety than traditionally anxious Western Australians and Northern Territorians. https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/give-thanks-for-our-states-they-make-us-australian-20180124-h0nfg8.html
Anxiety about their safety also afflicted Victorians within their homes. In 2016-17 the proportion of New South Wales locals who felt safe in their own homes at night remained unchanged at 90 per cent, but the proportion of Victorians who felt safe at home dropped from 87 to 79 per cent, making Victorians now the most anxious on this measure, sharing this ranking with Northern Territorians. https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/give-thanks-for-our-states-they-make-us-australian-20180124-h0nfg8.html
Twelve months later, in the period from July 2017 to July 2018, the Productivity Commission's annual survey found that just under a third of Victorians (28.4 per cent) felt unsafe walking around their neighbourhoods at night. Only the Northern Territorians reported a greater proportion (38.5 per cent) as worried about their safety on their local streets after dark during the same period. The 27.9 percent of Victorians who reported feeling unsafe on public transport at night is also markedly higher than the national average of 20.6 percent. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/almost-a-third-of-victorians-feel-unsafe-at-night-on-public-transport-20190123-p50t62.html
It has been suggested that a series of high-profile crimes has contributed to this anxiety among Victorians regarding their safety. These incidents have included the November 2018 lone terrorist attack in Bourke Street Melbourne which resulted in two injuries and the death of Pellegrini's Espresso Bar co-owner, Sisto Malaspina, a prominent and highly regarded local identity. Prior to this there had been extensively reported flare-ups of gang violence involving Sudanese-Australian youths. The same ethnic group has also been involved in a spike in carjacking and home invasions, crimes previously uncommon in Victoria. Contributing to a sense of danger for Victorian women was the rape and murder of comedian Eurydice Dixon in Princes Park in June 2018. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/almost-a-third-of-victorians-feel-unsafe-at-night-on-public-transport-20190123-p50t62.html
Dixon's death is one of a number resulting from attacks by strangers on women in public places in Melbourne, perhaps most prominently the rape and murder of Jill Meagher in September 2012.
Further undermining Victorians sense of safety in public spaces was the killing of six people, in January 2017, by James Gargasoulas who drove a car through the Bourke Street Mall. The Bourke Street massacre was followed by a violent siege in June 2017 involving terrorist Yacqub Khayre, who murdered a receptionist and held a prostitute hostage at a Brighton apartment building, leading to a shootout with Victorian police.
Those who argue against governments responding to fear provoked by such extreme or outlier behaviour as that detailed above fail to acknowledge the impact that such fear can have on the lives of people. It restricts people's freedom of movement and reduces their personal choices, potentially limiting how they recreate and even where they live and work.
Following the rape and murder of Eurydice Dixon, Sally Capp, the first woman to be directly elected as Melbourne's Lord Mayor, stated, 'As a woman who walks around, cycles around and drives around and uses the city at all hours of the day I want to be able to feel safe. It's going to be difficult to achieve that... the city should be safe for everybody who wants to live, work and move through...[it] at any time of the day. The reality is, it's not. What happened was absolutely devastating.' https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-don-t-feel-safe-police-minister-lord-mayor-voice-fears-after-eurydice-dixon-s-death-20180615-p4zlr5.html
Victoria's Police Minister, Lisa Neville, similarly stated, in response to Dixon's death, 'As a woman I want to be able to be safe in my community. Unfortunately, that's not the case and we've got a lot of work to do.' https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/we-don-t-feel-safe-police-minister-lord-mayor-voice-fears-after-eurydice-dixon-s-death-20180615-p4zlr5.html

4. Victoria's imprisonment rate is lower than that of most other Australian states and territories
Defenders of Victoria's imprisonment rate note that it is lower than that of most other Australian states and territories.
As at June 2017, Victoria had the second lowest rate of imprisonment in Australia after the Australian Capital Territory. Victoria had 145.4 prisoners per 100,000 adults, the Australian Capital Territory had 141.2 per 100,000 adults and the national rate was 215.9 per 100,000 adults. In contrast, the Northern Territory had the highest rate of imprisonment at 878.4 per 100,000 adults. This is significantly higher than all other states and territories. At 340.0 per 100,000 adults, Western Australia also had a rate of imprisonment that was substantially higher than the national average. https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/statistics/sentencing-statistics/australias-imprisonment-rates
Court data for 2015-16 indicates that 64 percent of defendants convicted of sex offences in the Victorian higher courts (the County and Supreme Court) were sent to prison, compared with 68 percent nationally. https://theconversation.com/is-victorias-sentencing-regime-really-more-lenient-85684
For all offences in the higher courts, the average and typical sentences for Victoria were 38 and 24 months respectively, while the national figures were 38 and 30 months. This means that, while the typical sentence is shorter, the average sentence is the same for Victoria as the rest of Australia. https://theconversation.com/is-victorias-sentencing-regime-really-more-lenient-85684
Some critics have argued that although Victoria has a lower rate of imprisonment than most other Australian states and territories, it is increasing its rate of incarceration more rapidly. Defenders of Victoria's rate of imprisonment acknowledge the rapid increase; however, they argue that Victoria is not out of pace with the rest of the nation, while its growth rate is significantly lower than Tasmania's.
Current data indicates that Tasmania's prison population is growing more rapidly than that of any other state or territory. The state's average  daily number of full-time prisoners increased by 2 percent in the December 2018 quarter alone, as indicated by Australian Bureau of Statistics figures. That was double the growth rate of South Australia and Queensland and well ahead of every other state or territory.
Despite Victoria's growing number of prison inmates, the state is taking steps to redress the disproportionate number of Indigenous Victorians in prison. Victoria is the first Australian jurisdiction to have set a target to close the gap in justice outcomes for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.  Generational targets have been set. The commitment is to close the gap in the number of Aboriginal people (youth and adult) under justice supervision by 2031.  Roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders are detailed, and progress against the key justice indicators and targets will be reported in the annual Victorian Government Aboriginal Affairs Report. https://www.alrc.gov.au/sites/default/files/subs/108._law_council_of_australia.pdf
It has also been noted that Victoria has relatively low numbers of youth in prison. In 2015-16, New South Wales had the highest number of people in youth detention facilities of any Australian state or territory, at 1,445 young people. Tasmania had the lowest at 30 young people. Victoria had 500 young people in detention during 2015-16.
In 2015-16, Victoria had the second lowest detention rate of 10 to 17-year-olds in youth detention facilities of all Australian states and territories, at 0.90 per 1,000 young people or 500 people.  Tasmania had the lowest rate, at 0.59 per 1,000 young people or 30 people. Victoria's rate was substantially lower than the Australian average of 1.83 per 1,000 young people. In contrast, Western Australia had the highest rate of 10 to 17-year-olds in youth detention, at 3.36 per 1,000 young people or 843 people. https://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/statistics/sentencing-statistics/young-people-in-detention

5. Victoria's prisons are working to reduce recidivism
The Victorian government has indicated that it is seeking to rehabilitate prisoners so that they will be able to live gainfully on their release. It is concerned to reduce the number of prisoners who repeat offend. The government has pledged that its growing prison population will not be a permanent prison population.
On May 24, 2019, the Minister for Corrections, Ben Carroll, issued a media release stating 'Victoria's prisons will be expanded with boosted behaviour programs, as the Andrews Labor Government takes action to break the cycle of reoffending to keep the community safe and creating jobs in the process...
To reduce the number of Victorians moving into, out of, and then back into the prison system, $22.7 million will be invested in diversion, rehabilitation and reintegration programs... We know that community safety is more than just building more prison beds - that's why we're boosting prison programs and investing in education and skill development that lead to jobs.' https://www.premier.vic.gov.au/a-stronger-prison-system-to-keep-people-safe/
Mr Carroll wants to redraft the Corrections Act which currently does not have prisoner rehabilitation as one of its purposes. Carroll has stated, 'I want rehabilitation to actually mean something - for it to flow through and for it to have accountability.' https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/prisons-to-focus-on-rehabilitation-not-recidivism-minister-20190628-p522bh.html
This change in focus has been endorsed by RMIT's Centre for Innovative Justice, which has stated, 'Remarkably, the Act's stated purposes do not include the rehabilitation of prisoners or the reduction of recidivism. Both should be included in the Corrections Act's legislated purposes. They are far too important to be left to policy and administrative guidance. Compared with other states, Victoria's model for providing a legislative context for rehabilitation programs has been described as 'virtually non-existent'. In the ACT, for example, there is a specific legislative mandate for rehabilitation programs. To drive reform in Victoria, rehabilitation and the reduction of recidivism should be described as the primary purposes of the Act. This would bring about change because it would re-focus the whole correctional system on its most important task.' https://cij.org.au/news-and-views/reversing-the-trend-of-mass-incarceration-do-prisons-have-a-role/
Mr Carroll is also seeking a review of parole provisions which would require prisoners to prove they had been rehabilitated by completing mandatory education and training programs. Currently about 91 per cent of prisoners are employed but only 36 per cent participate in education programs. https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/prisons-to-focus-on-rehabilitation-not-recidivism-minister-20190628-p522bh.html
As part of this scheme, the new privately-run Ravenhall Prison in Melbourne's west is promising a new model of rehabilitation for prisoners with pre- and post-release support, plus a 75-bed mental health unit, to help identify and tackle the causes of crime.
Amid a surge in prisoner numbers across Victoria, the state government has offered the prison's private operator, GEO, bonuses of up to $2 million a year if it reduces recidivism by 12% compared with the overall prison system. The target is 14% for indigenous prisoners. The Minister for Corrections has stated, 'The prison will place a strong emphasis on rehabilitation to help offenders break the cycle of crime.' https://this.deakin.edu.au/society/could-victoria-follow-norways-lead-on-prisoner-rehabilitation