Right: Gridlock on our transport networks; just one example of infrastructure some describe as on the point of collapse. Former federal MP and minister Barry Cohen says the deterioration in the quality of life in our cities is already obvious with a population of 22 million. With a projected 35 million in 2050, Mr Cohen says Australia is "courting disaster".Arguments against a 'big Australia'
1. The projected population would place too much strain on Australia's water resources
Critics of a 'big Australia' argue that a dry continent such as Australia must secure reliable water sources before it can consider allowing or encouraging substantial further population growth.
Greg Hunt, the shadow federal spokesman for climate action, environment and heritage, has stated, 'Investment in water efficiency for a thirsty country should be the starting point for considering population, not an afterthought.'
Mr Hunt claims that the approach of the former Rudd government was misguided as it was contemplating population growth without first ensuring adequate water supplies to make such growth viable. Mr Hunt has argued, 'The heart of sustainable water infrastructure is a national vision to ensure that we have sufficient water for our cities, our food security and our environment. This means investment in a once-in-a-century modernisation of our food production so as to save more than 600 billion litres of water a year at present lost through inefficient water use.'
2. Australian cities could not adequately accommodate the population endorsed by 'big Australia' advocates
It has been argued that Australian cities could simply not support the sort of population growth that is being predicted. It is claimed that housing stock is already inadequate and that housing prices are already so high that some people will never be able to afford to own their own homes.
Federal Labor MP and former frontbencher Kelvin Thomson, the member for Wills in Melbourne's northern suburbs has stated, 'Melbourne is becoming an obese, hardened-artery parody of its former self. Like a man rapidly gaining weight who simply loosens his belt rather than confront his weight problem, Melbourne needs to ask itself, is a population of 5 million really going to give us a better city than one of 4 million?
We are now growing by 75,000 people every year, 1500 every week, over 200 every day. This is pushing up housing prices and making housing unaffordable for the young...'
This position has been put more expansively by Barry Cohen, a minister in the former Hawke government, who has claimed, 'With a population of 22 million, the deterioration in the quality of life in our cities is already obvious. Daily our media highlights the inadequacy of our schools, hospitals and transport system, housing and water shortages, and spiralling land prices. You don't need to be an urban planner, demographer or sociologist to see the problems.
If the 35 million predicted by 2050 is correct, with Sydney and Melbourne rising to seven million each, we are courting disaster. Double the population and life in the cities will be intolerable.'
It has further been noted that Australia's settlement pattern of a family home on a quarter-acre block means that high density housing will not be readily accepted.
Tory Maguire, writing for The Punch, has noted, ''While people complain about the urban sprawl of Australian cities, we're still acutely averse to the concept of raising our children without the luxury of our own back yards.'
3. Australia's infrastructure and transport services could not accommodate such a population
It has been claimed that Australia's roads and transport networks would not be able to cope with the population growth that some have suggested will or should occur.
Federal Liberal MP and former immigration minister, Kevin Andrews, has argued, 'Why is the Rudd Government hell-bent on bringing more and more people to Australia? How many people do we need?...
Our roads are congested, our public transport overcrowded ... Journeys that once took 30 minutes often take an hour. The congestion has spread beyond peak hours to much more of the day.'
The need to balance population against Australia's infrastructure's capacity has been stressed by Bob Brown, the leader of the Greens. Mr Brown has stated, 'Australia's population should be determined by the capacity of our environment and our infrastructure. Australia cannot support an increase in population to 35 million by 2050.'
A similar point has been made by the leader of the Opposition, Tony Abbott. Mr Abbott has stated, 'The Coalition will seek to restore public confidence in the integrity of our migration program, by ensuring that it is consistent with a sustainable population growth path.
Decisions about immigration numbers should take into account regularly updated expert advice about projected future population numbers and whether planned infrastructure is likely to be able to cope.'
Since her assumption of the role of Prime Minister, Julia Gillard has adopted a position similar to Mr Abbott's. Ms Gillard has stated, 'I don't support the idea of a big Australia with arbitrary targets of, say, a 40 million-strong Australia or a 36 million-strong Australia. We need to stop, take a breath and develop policies for a sustainable Australia.
I support a population that our environment, our water, our soil, our roads and freeways, our busses, our trains and our services can sustain.'
4. Australia's health services would be overtaxed by this level of population growth
It has been claimed that Australia's health services would not cope with a significant increase in the nation's population.
An independent analysis by the Australian Medical Association has concluded that Australian public hospitals are dysfunctional, operating at full or above-full capacity, and urgently in need of increased capital funding. An important finding was that major metropolitan teaching hospitals operate on a bed occupancy rate of 95% or above. The report noted that hospital overcrowding was the most serious cause of reduced patient safety.
It has been claimed that, even at Australia's current population of only about 20 million people, the public health system is struggling to cope with demand. Changes will be required to deal with a vastly increased, yet still ageing, population and the attendant multiple comorbidities, many attributable to increased urbanisation.
5. This level of population would result in an increase in crime and social dislocation
It has been suggested that the strain of migration and the lack of a secure base within the country to which migrants come, may lead to them having a higher than anticipated involvement in criminal activity.
Andrew Bolt, a commentator for The Herald Sun, has stated, 'Crime rates among the Vietnamese-born are still very high, decades later, and the rise of ethnic gangs among the recently arrived is troubling.'
Andrew Bolt has further noted, 'The NSW police's biggest specialist unit is its Middle Eastern Crime Squad, with 120 members, and jail rates in Australia of the Lebanese-born are higher than for any other ethnic group except Tongans, Samoans, Romanians, Vietnamese and now the Sudanese.
More worrying, NSW police say they're even more likely to arrest the children and grandchildren of the Lebanese-born.'
It has also been claimed that an increased population through migration can result in a proportion of the population feeling relatively little commitment to the country to which they have migrated. The claim has further been made that ethnic diversity can reduce the trust citizens place in one another. Andrew Bolt has also claimed, '... high immigration ... inevitably ... brings in people who feel less connection to this country, and thus less duty to it. It can be like the difference between renters and owners. Who looks after the place better?
These changes are so great that by 2025 more than half of us will have been born overseas, or will, like me, have at least one parent born abroad.
This alone is a challenge, since many studies in many countries - including one here by the Australian National University's Dr Andrew Leigh - show that the more ethnically diverse a place, the less trust people have in each other.'
Monash University population expert Dr Bob Birrell has said a large influx of people with few or no English skills is creating social problems in suburbs such as Dandenong, Sunshine and Broadmeadows. Dr Birrell has stated, 'Social divisions are becoming more obvious and geographically concentrated (and certain areas) are being overlain by an ethnic identification.'