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2010/11: Population growth: is a 'big Australia' desirable?
Introduction to the media issue
Video clip at right:
TOP: An ABC interview with Tony Bourke, formerly the Minister for Population, now the Minister for Population Growth and Sustainability. This designation indicates a new approach by Mr Bourke's new Prime Minister
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What they said...
'I actually believe in a big Australia. I make no apology for that. I actually think it's good news that our population is growing'
Former Australian Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd
'I don't support the idea of a big Australia with arbitrary targets of, say, a 40 million-strong Australia or a 36 million-strong Australia. We need to stop, take a breath and develop policies for a sustainable Australia'
Current Australian Prime Minister, Julia Gillard
The issue at a glance
On October 22, 2009, Dr Ken Henry, the Secretary to the Treasury, stated, '...since publishing the Intergenerational Report 2007, our long term projection for Australia's population ... [has] increased from 28.5 million in 2047 to more than 35 million people in 2049.
This 25 per cent increase in our 40 year projections reflects the combined effect of higher net overseas migration and a recent pick up in the fertility rate of Australian women.
Today's population is about 22 million. So we are now projecting an increase of 13 million people, or around 60 per cent, over the next 40 years.'
On the evening of October 22, 2009, the then Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, was asked about these figures on the ABC's current affairs program, The 7.30 Report. Mr Rudd responded, 'I actually believe in a big Australia. I make no apology for that. I actually think it's good news that our population is growing.
Contrast that with many countries in Europe where in fact it's heading in the reverse direction. I think it's good for us, it's good for our national security long term, it's good in terms of what we can sustain as a nation.'
Industry welcomed the projections, arguing such growth was good for Australia's economic health. However, the Prime Minister's comments created a political flurry, with the Opposition leader and a variety of others advising caution. The issue became conflated with the government's supposed inability to stop the increase in asylum seekers arriving in Australia.
Mr Rudd later appeared to revise his position, clarifying that the figure of 35 to 36 million by 2050 was a projection based on current trends and was neither a goal nor a prediction of the government's.
When Mr Rudd was replaced as Prime Minister of Australia in June, 2010, by his former deputy, Julia Gillard, one of her first actions was to declare that rather than supporting 'a big Australia', she supported 'a sustainable Australia'.
The issue of what size Australia is desirable, how we achieve it and how we prepare for it, will clearly not go away.
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